Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
